We initiate on CMCSA with a Buy rating and $47 PT. Comcast Corp. is a diversified media and technology conglomerate via Xfinity, NBCUniversal and Sky, spanning Broadband, Streaming, Studios, Parks and EU Pay-TV. Beneath a mature surface, stronger Parks momentum and reduced Streaming losses are resetting the earnings baseline and creating an underappreciated inflection point for shareholders. Market pessimism over structural sports rights cost inflation and the pending NBCU cable spin masks two catalysts already underway: 1. A $700mn EBITDA lift through FY26E from flagship theme-park openings; and 2. Meaningful improvement in Peacock’s trajectory, with growth set to outpace consensus by FY25E. These drivers support our above-the Market FY25E EBITDA forecast of $36.8bn despite caution on post-spin years, where we model 1.7% below peers for conservative macro ad drag and separation assumptions. This blend of short-term outperformance and mid-cycle headwinds yields a constructive multiple—above crisis troughs but mindful of churn and inflation risk. On an SOTP basis, net of debt, our framework implies $175.9bn equity value, or 31% upside from spot. Though execution and macro risks persist, R/R favors investors as market skepticism on structural inflection and capital return creates a rare mispricing to exploit.
Peacock Scales Sports Profitability
We believe the market underestimates the structural earnings lift from CMCSA’s parks expansion pipeline as WACNE enters a key 12-month run-up to project openings and the transition from investment phase to monetization. Epic Universe opens in Orlando in May 2025 and $100mn of Q1 pre- opening costs are behind us; Las Vegas (Aug 2025) and the landmark Frisco Universal Kids Resort