We launch DECK at Buy/$147 PT. Deckers Outdoor Corp designs, markets, and distributes premium footwear and apparel globally through categories centered around UGG, HOKA, Teva, and Sanuk. Beneath a mature façade, DECK is quietly crafting an inflection, fueled by both HOKA’s global expansion and surgical cost discipline. The Market is skeptical of tariff hits and margins peaking, but our analysis shows management clawing back ~50% of the $75mn drag, limiting EBIT margin compression to just 240bps and positioning consolidated FY27 EPS 9% ahead of the Market. Importantly, a recent $2.5bn upsized buyback translates to a 0.15–0.20 annual EPS tailwind, an incremental buyback lever most models miss. For HOKA, FY27 platform sales should comprise 37% of brand revenue as new launches and Europe expansion accelerate, underpinning a return to mid-teens blended revenue growth. On valuation, 16.7x current P/E marks the 19th percentile vs. history and doesn’t reflect platform robustness; a 20.0x forward P/E FY27 captures both margin recapture torque and the structural growth shift, while prudently tempering the Market calls for mean-reversion near 28x. Yes, insider sales and macro headwinds can’t be ignored, but with monetizable levers in mix shift and capital return, R/R skews attractively to the upside. DECK enters its next chapter supported by quantifiable operational upside and valuation support, offering a compelling view on an underappreciated global earnings ramp.
Markets Reward Discipline
We believe HOKA’s international inflection is underestimated by the market in terms of the rate and durability of export-led mix shift. HOKA’s global revenue increased 24% to $2.2bn in FY25, with