Equity ResearchJune 28, 2025
$DIS

Disney: Streaming Scale and Parks Leverage Drive Buy Rating

We initiate DIS with a Strong Buy rating and $193 PT. The Walt Disney Company is a global entertainment conglomerate, including landmark studios, worl

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Moretus Research

We initiate DIS with a Strong Buy rating and $193 PT. The Walt Disney Company is a global entertainment conglomerate, including landmark studios, world-class theme parks, and a rapidly scaling streaming portfolio. We believe the most compelling aspect of DIS today is the contrast between a market distracted by the wounds of years past (legacy media drag, streaming losses) and a company quietly executing what is arguably the most aggressive EPS recovery in its history. With headlines fixated on subscriber churn or linear softness, underlying growth drivers are inflecting; mgmt's confidence in >$1B DTC op income in FY25 now clearly in-source (Hulu-ESPN bundling drove 25M incremental net adds, well above consensus). Pks continues to print top decile ROIC & mid SD bookings growth helping to support achievable consensus-like 100bps margin expansion, and sports- driven ad revs (+20% in latest qtr) combine with an accelerating buyback engine (forecast $2B in FY26) to lift our FY26E $6.65 EPS above street ($6.32), and drive our target multiple of 29x, vs historical average 30x and a media peer set that remains at +60x P/E. Yes, the path to DTC profitability will not be without bumps, and mgmt is the proverbial tightrope walker exposed to the scrutiny that attends any high-wire act; but 2 consecutive qtrs of 20% EPS beat give sufficient credence. With streaming scale as profit arrives, capital returns accelerating, and valuation at a significant discount to long-term averages, risk/reward looks compelling to us for investors looking beyond the surface noise.

Parks Margins Take-Off.

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Important Disclosures: This research report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please see appendix for full disclosures and analyst certifications.

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