We initiate on EXOD with a Strong Buy rating and $93 PT. Exodus Movement, Inc. is a non-custodial crypto wallet-platform provider, which allows users to manage, exchange, and store digital assets including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a growing number of altcoins.
Underneath the tumultuous sector landscape, Exodus has quickly scaled its MAU base, differentiating itself in a peer group challenged by engagement. Our conviction stems from the fundamental proof-points that accelerating user adoption—45%/35% growth in FY25E/FY26E—and consistent ARPU expansion are driving a top-line trajectory well ahead of consensus.
We view the mix-shift, led by XO Swap and nascent traction in Passkeys wallet, as providing the one-two punch that will drive new monetization levers and unlock stickiness in a peer group distracted by crypto volatility.
While consensus underestimates the “remaining products” business potential to return to a high-growth profile and dismisses the upside to transaction fees from stablecoins, we bake in both under our bull-case scenario of 46.7%/38.7% revenue growth in FY25E/FY26E.
Our 3.2x FY26E EV/Sales multiple reflects the premium-growth profile vs. peers despite a conservative take on ongoing regulatory and volatility risks. While we acknowledge the potential for margin dilution from regulatory fees or material fluctuations in digital-asset activity, we view the scale of operational momentum and growing monetization levers as far outweighing app-specific or macro risks in our model.
Ultimately, we view the R/R as asymmetric, with proprietary indicators and user momentum giving us considerable conviction that the street is materially underestimating the embedded upside in Exodus's growth trajectory.