Equity ResearchJune 23, 2025
$FICO

FICO: Hold Rating Amid Margin Strength and Regulatory Risks

We initiate on FICO with a Hold rating and $1,664 PT. FICO's analytics, platform SW, and global scoring probity allow financial institutions and enter

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Research Team
Moretus Research

We initiate on FICO with a Hold rating and $1,664 PT. FICO's analytics, platform SW, and global scoring probity allow financial institutions and enterprises around the world to automate and optimize mission-critical decisions. Beneath FICO's vaunted brand, a tale of two narratives. In the positive corner, fast Platform adoption and strong Score pricing tailwinds. On the negative side, daunting mortgage headwinds and a steady pace of new annual contract conversions. Management's measured marching orders still resonate, even as January's Score reset visibly bolsters revenue run rates (+11%, we estimate) and drives our FY26E high-teens EPS growth forecast (FY25E $27.00 / FY26E $32). We see Street estimates in the comfort zone, with optimism too high for a mortgage usage rebound and outsized ARR inflection. We ground our PT in a 52x forward P/E to balance FICO's moat- enabled margin (58-60%) durability with real regulatory pinch points, specifically the company's evolving pricing model and a recent insider divesture that gives us pause and argue for an appropriate de-rate from today's 76x premium. Recurring software has some weight, but the boost from buybacks is a complement. Our confidence is more with the measured management guidance and slower Platform adoption, and not with the blue sky outlook that has shaped Street. Perhaps a faster-platform ramp and a resolve to regulatory uncertainty can quickly move the needle, but fundamental risk/reward here doesn't suggest an exuberance or a rush to conviction. We see more symmetry than asymmetry here, and a virtue of patience.

Regulatory Flashpoints Amplify Risk

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Important Disclosures: This research report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please see appendix for full disclosures and analyst certifications.

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