Equity ResearchJune 21, 2025
$FOUR

Shift4 Payments: Strong Buy on Inflection and Synergy Upside

Digital Value, Real Yield We initiate coverage on FOUR with a Strong Buy rating and $216 PT. Shift4 Payments is not just a merchant acquirer; the comp

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Moretus Research

Digital Value, Real Yield We initiate coverage on FOUR with a Strong Buy rating and $216 PT. Shift4 Payments is not just a merchant acquirer; the company provides an integrated payment and technology platform across restaurants, hospitality, and venues around the world – tying everything from POS to eCommerce together with its cloud native infrastructure. In this seemingly mature sector, Shift4 has built-up volume momentum and operating leverage that is at an inflection today. Strong FY25 guidance (management expects PV to grow 26-28% while US hospitality volumes remains resilient and international signings accelerate), sets up a clear path to FY26 revenue of $5.0bn (+18% YoY) and all lines are mostly in view under our conservative yield assumptions. Meaningfully, Shift4's disciplined cross-sell opportunity across recent acquisitions is contributing synergies that are quantifiable at a $20m run-rate in early-2025 and annualize to a quarter billion new gross revenue line in FY26 – a positive that is not often seen so early in the cycle. The disconnect lies in a valuation that assumes growth and margin durability is over. Despite industry-leading EBITDA margins (45.7% adjusted) at the top of the decile, and with a massive, firm backlog of enterprise signings still to come online, trading at 2.29x EV/Sales, FOUR has widened its discount to peers that assumes management transition risk, but discounts the breadth of the gross yield architecture. Assigning a forward 3.3x EV/Sales multiple implies 135% upside from a base-case. While we acknowledge macro concerns around discretionary spend & regulatory noise are likely to continue to weigh on shares,

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Important Disclosures: This research report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please see appendix for full disclosures and analyst certifications.

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