We initiate on FUBO at Strong Buy / $19 PT. fuboTV is the leading live TV streaming platform for sports, news, and entertainment content on connected TVs, mobile, and PCs.
Our Strong Buy thesis is based on two key arguments:
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The street is bullish on '25 but is deep in the '26 discount — our $1.46bn '25 est is below consensus on licensing delays, and execution drag from TelevisaUnivision churn, but we are far more bullish on '26 as DOJ approval of Disney/Hulu link is tracking ahead of plan, unlocking immediate and material upside beyond what's in the street.
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PT is supported by a conservative 1.5x P/S on '25, moving to 2.8x on '26 as the Disney/Hulu inflection drives ARPU + ad stack leverage — levels still well below peer median & prior bull cycles.
The key question for the street: Can FuboTV navigate near-term turbulence and seize outsized '26 opportunity? Our answer is yes – our differentiated regulatory read, a conservative '25 forecast, and conviction in FY26E ops catalyst set up asymm metric upside.
Yes, execution + licensing delays are risks. Our scenario analysis explicitly models these headwinds.
Our bottom line: Unique R/R at current levels; the street is too bullish on near-term drag + too bearish on re-rating.