Equity ResearchJune 20, 2025
$HD

Home Depot: Margin Reacceleration Through Pro Credit Boost

We initiate on HD with a Hold rating and $343 PT. The Home Depot, Inc. operates the largest home improvement retail chain in the United States, servic

5 min read
1,000 words
Rating
N/A
Price Target
N/A
Research Team
Moretus Research

We initiate on HD with a Hold rating and $343 PT. The Home Depot, Inc. operates the largest home improvement retail chain in the United States, servicing both homeowners and a loyal set of even more professional trades and specialist customers, with one of the deepest B&M footprints and e-commerce platforms. Behind the veil of NT pessimism is a stealth HEPS reacceleration brewing, catalyzed by pent-up reno spend soft-landing and visibility into Pro credit expansion accelerating topline + likely incremental mix/margin expansion as mortgage rates ease. Our model has diluted EPS inflecting to $14.60 in FY25E from below then to $15.60 in FY26E, +4% vs. cons, assuming early visibility into a 3.5% top line reacceleration, 30bps of MS rate expansion, and the programmatic return of shareholder repurchases (which explicit capital assumption is baked into our model and not into cons). These incremental earnings catalysts should be largely overlooked by the Street, suggesting HD's ability to reaccelerate EPS is more sustainable than bears expect, while mgmt can manage productivity and shrink to overcome lingering structural mix headwinds. With a 22.0x fwd P/E rat, just below historical median (+ premium to peers), we see fair valuation (yielding the Pro competitive advantage and capital allocation premium) but also no further upside multiple expansion until the macro crosswind tailwinds subside. If the insider selling or inflection in demand momentum catalyze, then downside risk could unfold quicker than bullish expectations, but current risk/reward favors patience vs. pushback. We see a steadily compounding mid-SDD EPS grower on HD,

Full Research Access Required

This research report contains proprietary analysis, financial models, and actionable insights. Access the complete report including detailed valuation methodology, risk assessment, and sector comparisons.

Financial Models
DCF & comps analysis
Risk Assessment
Scenario analysis
Sector Analysis
Peer comparison

Institutional clients: Contact your Moretus representative for immediate access. This research is for professional and institutional investors only.

Key Metrics

Market CapN/A
P/E RatioN/A
Dividend YieldN/A
NAV/ShareN/A

Important Disclosures: This research report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please see appendix for full disclosures and analyst certifications.

Related Research

View All Research →
Equity Research

Loading...

Research report details will appear here

Equity Research

Loading...

Research report details will appear here

Equity Research

Loading...

Research report details will appear here

© 2025 Moretus Advisors LLC. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Moretus.

This research report is prepared for institutional clients and qualified investors. It is not intended for retail investors. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.