Equity ResearchJune 20, 2025
$HD

Home Depot: Strong Buy Rating Initiated with $330B Target Amid Strategic Inflection

We initiate on HD with a Strong Buy rating and $330,025,000,000 price target. Home Depot operates the largest home improvement retail platform in the

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Research Team
Moretus Research

We initiate on HD with a Strong Buy rating and $330,025,000,000 price target. Home Depot operates the largest home improvement retail platform in the US, serving both professional and DIY customers across 2,317 stores and a powerful digital ecosystem. Behind the facade of steady-as-she-goes, mature-retail, HD sits at a tactical inflection point where embedded brand equity, operating rigueur, and supply chain investments unfold into meaningful earnings leverage as the cycle turns. As near-term consensus turns their focus to benign margin pressure, and guided FY25E EPS decline to $14.60 (-2.1% y/y), we find conviction in management's willingness to underwrite near-term caution for the sake of long-term positioning. In our view, consensus overlooks mix drags and minimal buybacks, and the ballast recovery to $15.35 FY26E EPS (+5.1%) — not heroic, but measured — but the Street's current 23.7x P/E still doesn't reflect longer-term normalization. What others view as mature retailer, we see as an ecosystem with unparalleled pricing power and service irritability, now poised to be leveraged as op-margin steadily accumulates, underwritten by a blended recovery to 13.3% Operating Margin, which we deliberately set below Street's bullish thesis. Our 21.5x forward multiple circumspectly sits between HD's 5-year median (22.56x) and current peer group averages, leaving upside that is both sizable and contained. Macro volatility and pro demand lag remain on our radar; however, balance-sheet discipline and embedded margin recovery path remain the fulcrum. In our view, Street is overly focused on transitory challenges and overlooks the scale — and timeliness — of HD's compounding engine.

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Important Disclosures: This research report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please see appendix for full disclosures and analyst certifications.

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