We initiate on MDT with Strong Buy, $161 PT. Medtronic plc develops best-in-class device-based medical therapies spanning CV, Surgical, Neuro, and Diabetes/MedSurg across global health systems. Behind the hum of industry skepticism, trading tariff headwinds and category disruptions, the firm's on the cusp of a structural inflection with Diabetes spin & an innovation pipeline pouring out 120+ approvals. The gap between fear-mongering and fundamental execution is, we opine, uncommon. With Street underestimating temporary tariff earnings impact (FY26) and overly skeptical of the swiftness of the margin recovery (FY27), setup for a step-change in profitability is compelling. Model assumptions leave us conservative near-term (FY26E $5.45 — 1.8% below Street on mid-point COGS tariff assumptions), but meaningfully higher than peers in FY27E ($6.20), with Diabetes separation (100bps margin lift) and explicit operating leverage on our core franchise (CAS and Structural Heart compounding DD into next year), driving our call. 26.0x forward P/E - anchored at a discount to peer median (42.9x) - is derived from historical and discount returns analysis, where we opine a structural premium warranted given the quality of the innovation cycle. Blend of multiples is 87% upside to our $161 PT - reflecting historical cross-validation and balanced internal modeling. Regulatory and macro call-outs are risks to execution, but scenario analysis presents only downside risk bias to FY26 and structural catalysts reasserting quickly thereafter. Upside risk far outweighs the downside, and the asymmetry embedded here is difficult to overlook for long-term allocators.
Structural Heart Outperformance
We view the pending diabetes spin off as a key lever to unlock margin expansion in MDT’s portfolio.