We initiate coverage on RBRK with a Hold Rating and $115 PT. Rubrik, Inc. offers a comprehensive portfolio of data security and cyber recovery solutions to enterprises globally, spanning cloud-native protection, threat analytics, and disaster recovery.
Under an already-high bar, Rubrik is showing unusual consistency in topping revenue and net retention expectations, fueled by the secular tailwind of AI data management and stronger hyperscaler ties. Sustainable outperformance above consensus looks possible as NRR runs >120% and large-enterprise cloud demand expands, leading us to model $1.2bn and $1.6bn for FY26E and FY27E revenue, respectively, which are 3-4 pts ahead of consensus.
Repeated outperformance as identity-recovery monetizes and AWS/GCP share expands keeps us lifting both revenue estimates and long-term TAM. But the 17.7x forward EV/Sales multiple is near historical highs and materially above peer median, leaving little slack for missteps as insider selling injects new caution.
Our $115 PT reflects a calibrated blend of strong momentum and discipline, anchoring valuation at 14.0x FY27E sales—enough to reward execution yet mindful of the borrowed altitude. The biggest risk is duration on large deals and macro-driven variability in IT spend cycles, which could expose RBRK’s premium to sharper drawdowns than high-growth peers.
With an annualized return of 9.1%, the R/R skews neutral for now; Rubrik’s strengths are well-realized in consensus and valuation alike, warranting patience before chasing further upside.