We initiate on TRIN with a Buy rating and $19 PT. Trinity Capital Inc. originates and manages mainly floating-rate venture loans to growth-stage tech and life science companies. The market remains anchored to recession risk and a cool-off in VC exits; however, TRIN’s fundamentals are structurally stronger than bears concede, with contractual floors (95% of portfolio) anchoring core yields near 14%—a durable edge that makes net interest income more resilient to relief from imminent Fed easing (we model one 50 bps cut next year). Deployment visibility remains unusually strong with $623 mn of pre-vetted unfunded commitments to drive high-single-digit percent earning asset growth through FY26E, and management’s $50 mn early refinance of convertible debt cuts cost of funds to unlock net interest income incrementally. Add in confidence-inspiring acceleration of TRIN’s scalable co- invest RIA vehicles, which alone should add $0.12/$0.14 of EPS in FY25E/FY26E, and we see a business model with multiple offensive levers. Our 8.5x FY26E multiple reflects the balanced scenario of persistent but residual macro risk and remains below peer medians, reflecting that rate/cycle concern hasn’t been erased; however, at a current price of $14.28, our P/E still implies a discount to TRIN’s own history, and we see R/R to the upside if re-rating—even a modest one—materializes as private credit and VC exits re-accelerate.
Deployment Visibility to Drive the Market-Leading Growth
We view TRIN’s yield structure as one of the most protective in private credit today. With 95% of TRIN’s loan book locked at contractual floors, core yields were 14.1% in the latest quarter, far