Equity ResearchJune 28, 2025
$TTD

The Trade Desk: Strong Buy on Kokai’s Transformative Impact

We initiate on TTD with a Strong Buy and a $132 PT. The Trade Desk, Inc. enables agencies and brands to execute optimized digital campaigns via a clou

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Research Team
Moretus Research

We initiate on TTD with a Strong Buy and a $132 PT. The Trade Desk, Inc. enables agencies and brands to execute optimized digital campaigns via a cloud-based platform that powers media buying across all major ad channels and devices. Underneath the noise in this crowded landscape, mgmt has methodically engineered a high-velocity mix-shift: Two-thirds of client spend already on Kokai, TTD's new AI-based engine, lowers campaign costs (by up to 42%), expands GMs, & clears the runway for a step-change in scalability. We believe the Street is not fully accounting for the compounded effect of Kokai adoption, accelerating CTV/video mix (60% by FY26E), & the bottom-line impact of a sustainable $400M in annual buybacks. On pace for FY26E EPS of $1.65 — some 45% ahead of Street — our view of sustained outperformance drives an 80x fwd PE, despite the threat of near-term insider sales and cyclicality discounting. As OpenPath and Sincera close the value leakage endemic to legacy programmatic pipes, incremental billable spend and take-rate uplift emerge as meaningful, rather than hypothetical. Regulatory actions are driving a leveling of the playing field, while the firm’s $1.7B net cash position insulates it from rate and macro noise. The stock, trading at a near-trough multiple despite an accelerating algorithmic flywheel, represents mechanical skepticism against a demonstrably improving business - an imbalance that allows room for re-rating. While insider selling is expected, and likely to cause episodic volatility, we find the risk/reward skew (90% upside to our target, limited downside from current levels) unusually asymmetric for this stage

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Important Disclosures: This research report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please see appendix for full disclosures and analyst certifications.

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