We initiate on WYNN with a Strong Buy, $187 PT. Wynn Resorts, Limited engages in the design, development, and operation of luxury integrated resorts in the markets of Macau, Las Vegas, and Boston, providing industry-leading gaming, hospitality, and entertainment experiences. While sentiment is hostage to periodic macro alarmism and policy noise, we find WYNN at an inflection, extracting structural drivers at core markets while secular tailwinds come together in high margin segments. Above-cons Rev visibility stems from the reversion of Macau premium mass - still humming along despite VIP play swings - aided by incremental traffic at Gourmet Pavilion and solid Golden Week mass drop trends. Add the accelerating pace of Vegas group bookings and unrelenting rate discipline, and it is evident embedded Price yields durability as the company pulls ahead of consensus on both FY25E ($7.1bn vs. $6.95bn) and FY26E ($7.65bn, 7% beat) via inherent operating leverage and a calibrated events schedule. Our 3.9x FY26E EV/S target, a modest premium to history but shy of euphoric peaks, is anchored not just in growth but also allocation discipline, Fertitta insider alignment, and margin robustness (29%, thru '26). A risk remains of U.S. consumer retrenchment or a Beijing regulatory re-freeze, but in our scenario, these would need to significantly step up to be disruptive to our figures. At current levels, the disconnect between muted sentiment and visible, compounding cash flows offers favorable asymmetry, leaving WYNN as one of the leisure stories on the board.
Las Vegas Levered Upside
We continue to see the resilience of Macau’s premium mass performance as not just underappreciated,